Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Cotton business Club

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower in light volume trading on ideas that the Chinese demand reported by USDA in the weekly export sales report was a one time event. Traders note that China has huge stocks and will probably be more interested in reducing this volume than to adding to it with more imports. The world supply and demand report fundamentals still show that plenty of Cotton should be available to users here and around the world, and that USDA thinks that strong production and big supplies will be seen around the world through the next crop year. Traders are watching India and Pakistan where the monsoon has not been good until recently. The monsoon has been better lately, with beneficial rains noted in production areas of both countries. It is still too wet in many Chinese production areas, and rains in northern areas expected this weekend could hurt quality.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see some showers today
and tomorrow. Dry weather returns for the rest of the week. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Texas will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is now 70.13 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.017 million bales, from 0.017 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 74.05, 73.65, and 73.35 October, with resistance of 76.00, 76.50, and 77.00 October.

USDA Crop Progress and Condition Reports for September 17,2012 in Percent


Crop Progress This Week Last Week Last Year Average

Cotton Bolls Opening 59 46 65 51
Cotton Harvested 6 4 8 7
Condition Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 12 18 27 32 11
Cotton Last Week 11 19 29 31 10
Cotton Last Year 25 20 28 23 4
 
 
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little higher on follow through buying from better than expected export sales in the weekly report from USDA and on US Dollar weakness from the FED moves of last week. China was a noted buyer in the reports last week, good news for the demand side of the market. However, the bullish effects could be only for the short term. The world supply and demand report fundamentals still show that plenty of Cotton should be available to users here and around the world, and that USDA thinks that strong production and big supplies will be seen around the world through the next crop year. Traders are also worried about demand, and especially demand from China as its economy continues to show weakness. Traders are watching India and Pakistan where the monsoon has n
ot been good until recently. The monsoon has been better lately, with beneficial rains noted in production areas of both countries. It is still too wet in many Chinese production areas, and rains in northern areas expected this weekend could hurt quality.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see some showers today and tomorrow. Dry weather returns for the rest of the week. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Texas will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is now 71.39 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.017 million bales, from 0.017 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7280 and 7130 October. Support is at 72.30, 71.20, and 70.50 October, with resistance of 74.10, 74.30, and 75.40 October.

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Sep 14
Data quoted in bales for week ending Sep 13. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 0 0 Southwest 98,732 645,225
NC 0 0 Okla 0 0
SC 0 0 Texas 98,732 645,225
Ga* 0 0 Kansas 0 0
Ala 0 0
Fla 0 0 Far West 0 3,386
Va 0 0 NM 0 0
Ariz* 0 3,386
Delta 11,869 13,479 Calif 0 0
Miss 1,122 1,817
Tenn* 0 0 Pima 0 0
Mo 0 0 Other 0 0
Ark 3,736 4,316 Total US 110,601 662,090
La 7,011 7,346 pct tenderable 47.8 47.4

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. Code-033661
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 09/11/12 |
————————————————————–| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
————————–|—————–|—————–|—————–
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
——————————————————————————–
(CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 274,986
COMMITMENTS
61,642 27,605 81,916 113,520 150,928 257,078 260,449 17,908 14,536
CHANGES FROM 09/04/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -1,911)
31 437 -1,114 -1,977 -658 -3,061 -1,335 1,149 -576
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
22.4 10.0 29.8 41.3 54.9 93.5 94.7 6.5 5.3
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 292)
131 72 95 67 73 233 208
 Due to rains PCGA have not issuing arrival report of cotton bales pcga will issue the arrival report at 3-10-2012.

CHINA CLOSE
NOV19335+190
JAN19765+185
MAR19880+130
MAY19850+75
China Cotton Index
(328):18639+2
(528):16335+5
(229):19582+2
Foreign Cotton Index
S:92.39-0.20
M:89.44-0.23
L:87.84-0.45
CNCE E-Trading
MA1209:18981+88
MA1210:19228+145
 

USDA (Sep)forecast
world ending stock 76.52 million bales up from 74.67 on the August report
production decline 8% to 114.0 m/b
consumption 107.6 m/b, up 3 percent from the previous year
China, consume 38.0 m/b, down 2.6% from the last year
Production
Australia 4.3 m/b down 18%
Brazil 6.1m/b down 30%
China 31.0m/b down 7.5%
India 24.5 m/b down 11%
Pakistan 9.7 m/b down 8.5%
Uzbekistan 4.1 m.b down 2%
US 17.1 m/b up 10 percent

0 comments:

Post a Comment